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Record
42-41-5
Units
-0.56u
ROI
-0.7%
Pending
2
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Mar 8

πŸ’
πŸ’David Pastrnak
Pending
Under3.5Shots On Goal
-114 novig Β· 1u
+6.7% edgeBoston Bruins @ Pittsburgh Penguins
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Pittsburgh's aggressive defensive structure has been limiting opposing star forwards' shot volume in recent home matchups. ⚑ The Play Pastrnak's shot generation has been trending down against teams that prioritize collapsing on elite scorers like the Penguins do.
Mar 8 Β· 3:26 PM ET
πŸ’
πŸ’Marco Kasper
Pending
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+114 novig Β· 1u
+6.1% edgeDetroit Red Wings @ New Jersey Devils
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Kasper's been averaging minimal ice time in his recent call-up, and tonight's pace-heavy matchup against New Jersey typically sees Detroit roll four lines more evenly. ⚑ The Play The rookie forward's limited deployment and New Jersey's defensive structure create a perfect storm for staying under this number.
Mar 8 Β· 7:21 AM ET
πŸ’
πŸ’Sean DurziUTA
Lose
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+120 Bookmaker Β· 1u
+11.6% edgeUtah Mammoth @ Columbus Blue Jackets
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Durzi's shot volume has been trending down lately while the model's been cooking with recent picks, and this line feels a touch generous for his current usage pattern. ⚑ The Play Banking on the defenseman staying under this number in what projects as a more defensive-minded road matchup for Utah.
Actual: 3Line: 1.5
Mar 7 Β· 2:24 PM ET
πŸ’
πŸ’Darren RaddyshTBL
Lose
Under2.5Shots On Goal
+136 prop-builder Β· 1u
+7.3% edgeTampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Raddysh's defensive role limits his offensive opportunities, and the model's been cooking lately with this exact scenario. ⚑ The Play Tampa's depth defenseman stays conservative on the road against Toronto's aggressive forecheck, keeping shot attempts minimal.
Actual: 5Line: 2.5
Mar 7 Β· 6:20 AM ET

Mar 7

πŸ’
πŸ’Pierre-Luc DuboisWSH
Win
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+158 Bookmaker Β· 1u
+5.9% edgeWashington Capitals @ Boston Bruins
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Dubois has been relegated to limited minutes in recent games while the model's been cooking lately with 4 of 5 hitting. ⚑ The Play Boston's defensive structure at home should keep this skilled center from finding quality shooting lanes in what projects as a lower-event game.
Actual: 0Line: 1.5
Mar 7 Β· 9:19 AM ET
πŸ’
πŸ’Nathan MacKinnonCOL
Win
Under3.5Shots On Goal
+135 Bookmaker Β· 1u
+6.4% edge
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE MacKinnon's shot volume has been trending down in recent games while the model still expects his usual aggressive output. ⚑ The Play The Avs star is picking his spots more selectively lately, creating value on the under in a spot where the line hasn't caught up.
Actual: 2Line: 3.5
Mar 6 Β· 9:34 AM ETView on X

Mar 4

πŸ’
πŸ’Ivan BarbashevVGK
Lose
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+115 DraftKings Β· 1u
+6.2% edgeVegas Golden Knights @ Buffalo Sabres
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Barbashev's shot volume has been trending down in recent road games, yet this line hasn't adjusted to his more limited offensive role. ⚑ The Play The model sees a favorable spot to fade Barbashev's shot prop in what projects as a lower-event game script.
Actual: 3Line: 1.5
Mar 3 Β· 9:41 AM ETView on X
πŸ’
πŸ’Elias LindholmBOS
Win
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+140 DraftKings Β· 1u
+9.0% edgePittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Lindholm's shot volume has been trending down significantly since joining Boston, and tonight's defensive matchup suggests another quiet performance. ⚑ The Play Taking the under on a player who's been operating in a more limited offensive role against a Pittsburgh team that's been effective at limiting quality chances.
Actual: 1Line: 1.5
Mar 3 Β· 6:33 AM ET
πŸ’
πŸ’Ivan DemidovMTL
Lose
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+101 Caesars Β· 1u
+6.2% edgeMontrΓ©al Canadiens @ San Jose Sharks
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Books are overvaluing Demidov's shot volume in what projects as a defensive-minded road game where Montreal will likely lean on veteran forwards in key situations. ⚑ The Play The rookie's limited ice time and San Jose's improved shot suppression at home creates a perfect storm for staying under this number.
Actual: 3Line: 1.5
Mar 3 Β· 1:44 AM ET

Feb 28

πŸ’
πŸ’Mitch MarnerVGK
Win
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+150 FanDuel Β· 1u
+5.3% edge
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Books are overvaluing Marner's shot volume despite his recent trend toward more playmaking and fewer individual shooting attempts. ⚑ The Play The model sees significant value fading Marner's shot props when he's been deferring more to linemates in favorable scoring situations.
Actual: 1Line: 1.5
Feb 27 Β· 2:36 PM ETView on X

Feb 5

πŸ’
πŸ’Ivan DemidovMTL
Win
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+100 DraftKings Β· 1u
+7.2% edgeMontrΓ©al Canadiens @ Winnipeg Jets
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Demidov's limited ice time in his recent call-up suggests the coaching staff is easing him into NHL action against a defensively stingy Jets squad. ⚑ The Play The rookie's shot volume has been trending down as he adjusts to the pace, making the under the sharp side tonight.
Actual: 0Line: 1.5
Feb 4 Β· 6:32 AM ETView on X

Feb 3

πŸ’
πŸ’John KlingbergSJS
Push
Under1.5Shots On Goal
+115 DraftKings Β· 1u
+5.7% edge
πŸ’Ž THE EDGE Klingberg's shot volume has been trending down significantly in recent games while the model still expects his usual output. ⚑ The Play The veteran defenseman's limited power play time and conservative positioning make the under a sharp fade of inflated expectations.
Feb 2 Β· 6:35 AM ETView on X

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